Fangraphs Baseball Playoff Odds (2024)

FAQs

How do FanGraphs calculate playoff odds? ›

To generate the playoff odds, we take the current standings, the remaining schedule, and each team's projected performance. We use those inputs to simulate the remaining season 20,000 times.

FanGraphs currently gives the Astros a 40.2% chance of making the playoffs, the eighth-best in the American League. While this may seem like a positive after such a poor start, no team has had a larger negative shift in playoff odds since the beginning of the campaign than Houston.

Blue Jays Odds for the 2024 Season

The Blue Jays odds to make the playoffs are currently between at +320, with some variation between Ontario sportsbooks. At 13 games back in the division, they're a long shot +13000 to win the AL East, behind the New York Yankees & Baltimore Orioles.

Probability Formulas Explained

Odds, are given as (chances for success) : (chances against success) or vice versa. If odds are stated as an A to B chance of winning then the probability of winning is given as P_Win = A / (A + B) while the probability of losing is given as P_Lose = B / (A + B).

The stat “Luck” on Baseball Reference is the difference between a team's Pythagorean Record which is calculated based on their run differential and a team's actual record. It is generally seen as a pretty good representation of a team's luck in close games.

No perfect games, a special subcategory of no-hitter, have been thrown in Astros history. As defined by Major League Baseball, "in a perfect game, no batter reaches any base during the course of the game."

The Houston Astros' odds to win the 2024 World Series are +1800. Add to Bet Slip. The Houston Astros' odds to win the 2024 American League Pennant are +1200. Add to Bet Slip.

2024 Projected Stats: .

They were +1500 to win it all in the spring after never being lower than +1800 during the regular season last year. For context, FanGraphs' latest playoff odds give the Phillies a 6.5% chance of winning the World Series.

What are the chances of the Padres making the playoffs? ›

If it's felt like a 1-in-100 chance that a season with this many positive underlying numbers could go as poorly as it has, then let's also say the 1% playoff odds they still possess give them that same 1-in-100 chance for a path back to October.

The Cardinals playoff chances are 25% for the 2024 season. Note that you can check out Arizona sports betting promos to potentially improve the odds of any NFL bet. The ESPN Football Power Index is also an excellent tool for gauging a team's playoff chances and Cardinals Super Bowl odds.

On June 1, 2022, the Phillies were 22-29 and had a 20.5 percent chance of making the postseason, according to FanGraphs' playoff odds. The Phils would go on to finish 87-75, grab the third National League Wild Card spot and make a run to the World Series (losing in six games to the Astros).

A run line favorite is set at -1.5 while the underdog is +1.5. Both run lines will also display odds for the cost of those run line bets (also known as juice/vig).

Playing in the American League (AL), the Orioles won World Series titles in 1966, 1970, and 1983. Cal Ripken, Jr. The franchise that would become the Orioles was founded in 1894 as a minor league team based in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, called the Brewers.

At FanGraphs we house a number of different systems such as Steamer, ZiPS, and FAN. You might also see something called “Depth Charts,” which is an average of Steamer and ZiPS with our staff's custom playing time estimates. We use Depth Charts projections to power our projected standings and playoff odds.

FanGraphs' main WAR for pitchers is based on FIP with infield flies counted as strikeouts. We also have a version of WAR called RA9-WAR that uses RA9 instead of FIP. We use a special FIP-based park effect when computing WAR which you can find here.

FV stands for Future Value, and it's the way we distill each player's scouting evaluation into a single expression.

It is formed from taking the observed run values of various offensive events, dividing by a player's plate appearances, and scaling the result to be on the same scale as on-base percentage. Unlike statistics like OPS, wOBA attempts to assign the proper value for each type of hitting event.